台澎防衛作戰空戰戰略探討 PART 3

「台澎防衛作戰」戰略態勢研析
Analysis on Taiwan Defense Operation Strategy


分析戰略態勢,係依以下四項因素:
一、敵我雙方兵、戰力比較:
以制空作戰兵、戰力而言,中共現於大陸東南地區部署有「東風」系列戰術彈道飛彈,且以每年五十枚的數目增長,此對我而言,因我目前反飛彈能力有限,故此一項目敵優我劣。
二、雙方兵力位置:
就台海地略研究,中共屬「外線作戰」態勢,我屬「內線作戰」態勢,就野戰戰略而言,「內線作戰」成功之主要條件為:
(一)能保持敵軍分離狀態。
(二)具有相當之持久與打擊兵力。
(三)可控制適當之空間。

以上三條件,我若能有效運用,有可能取得戰略上之優勢,否則,將對我極不利。
三、雙方補給線與作戰正面關係:於制空作戰中,國內漢翔公司雖可自製戰機,然主要之各項兵火力補充仍需仰賴外援;中共可自立研發、量產,又可與俄羅斯等國家合作生產新一代戰機,就補給線而言,敵優我劣。
四、作戰發展:
台海發生爭端,中共必須「速戰速決」,因其國家整體經濟發展不容許東南地區長久動亂,而其制空作戰後支力亦不容許其「持久」,時間因素對中共壓力甚大;我方則無所謂時間壓力,唯一需考量者為全國軍民的戰鬥意志力。依以上分析,可知制空作戰戰略態勢「敵優我劣」。
Analysis strategic include following 4 factor:
1) Both forces and operation capability:
About DCA/OCA operation capability, PLA deploy “Dong-Feng” tactical ballistic missile on southeast mainland, and increase by 50 per year. For ROC, lock of anti-missile capability, so about TBM capability PLA is better than us.
2) Both force deployment:
About Taiwan Strait strategy, PLA belong to outside line operation, ROC belong to inside line operation, if talk about inside line operation successful principles are:
(1) keep enemy force separate。
(2) maintain strike force and keep it power longer。
(3) control some battle space 。

Above, if we can use effective, we are going to gain the strategic benefit, otherwise if we lose will make us disadvantage.
3) Both support line:
In DCA/OCA, we have capability to made up fighter our self, but main support still rely on USA, PLA can self develop, product weapon and cooperation with Russia to get more new generation fighter, as support line, enemy is much better than us.
4.Operation development:
If Taiwan Strait war happens, PLA must keep it fast operation and fast terminated. Because of its national economic can’t afford and also can ’t allowed the southeast mainland keep longer unstable, and its operation support can’t afford the operation endurance. Time for PLA is huge pressure, for us the only consideration is the whole country fighting will. Depend on above we want to say the counter air operation strategy is enemy better than us.

「台澎防衛作戰」之關鍵
Key Points of Taiwan defense


「台澎防衛作戰」之遂行,依台澎地區之島嶼地略特性,係按奪取制空權,繼奪取制海權,最後實施登陸,完成其作戰目的之順序執行;依此理則思維,台澎防衛作戰之決戰階段應為何?制空?制海?亦或反登陸?蓋此一決戰階段之認定極端重要,因即為建軍備戰之重點所在,一旦決策走向錯誤之方向,必然將對爾後作戰極為不利!大軍作戰,在擁有廣大腹地,同時又面對戰略態勢較我為優之敵時,一般採誘敵深入戰略,以縮短我之補給線,使我力量逐漸集中,同時使敵補給線逐漸拉長,戰力漸次分散,於對我有利之時空,尋求與敵決戰,為正確之戰略戰術;然台澎防衛作戰,我既無深廣腹地,又不欲使戰火延燒至本島,再考量台澎地略特性與作戰階段,其決戰應屬制空作戰;因考量中共「不打沒把握的仗」作戰原則,惟有在奪取並確保制空後,方會繼續實施制海及登陸作戰,在空優獲取無十分把握時,應當不致貿然發起渡海行動!故我如設法不使敵獲致台海空優,後續之制海,反登陸作戰等問題極可能以談判等形勢代替;是故制空作戰為台澎防衛作戰致勝之關鍵因素與主軸,殆無疑義!﹝然此處所謂之決戰並非將所有之兵火力一次投入戰場,而係持續制空作戰行為,使敵在對我攻勢發起後,始終無法獲致空優,亦即我方仍不斷持續實施防空與反制行動﹞
Taiwan defense operation, following the island strategic character : will get air superiority, sea power and landing island step by step. So follow the thinking, when is the decisive point of war? Is it counter air? Is it counter sea? Or anti-landing? Figure out the war step is very important, it is a keep point for build up forces and prepare war also. If decision making wrong direction, it will damage our operation in the future. Forces operation need more space capacity, facing enemy strategy better than us, the only way we can do is make enemy go trick, shorter our support line, join our force make enemy support line longer, separate enemy forces, when timing is good, make it decisive fight to enemy will be correct strategy. But Taiwan doesn’t have space to fight and we need to be avoiding the war happen in island also. Consider operation character and step, the decisive operation will be the counter air step, but PLA will make sure control air power and sea power then continue land operation, otherwise PLA don’t attack Taiwan in sudden. So the most important thing for ROC is to gain air superiority I Taiwan strait if we don’t following operation could be instead of by meeting. So counter air operation will be the key point about Taiwan defense without doubt.

空中戰鬥目的探討
Goal of Air Battle


空中戰鬥(或稱空中決戰,然作者極不欲以此名詞稱呼,蓋極有可能誤導讀者,認為作者在倡導以我有限且在數量上佔劣勢之兵力欲與中共優勢兵力一戰決勝負)一般而言不外乎摧毀敵制空作戰有生戰力(獲取制空)、殲滅來襲敵空中兵力(防空作戰)、不使敵獲致空優;就野戰用兵而言,殲滅[或捕殲]敵野戰軍主力乃為其最終目的,其手段可能為「攻勢制空」(反制作戰)或「守勢制空」中之「主動防空」,也有可能兩者並用;但很少見「不使敵獲致空優」。
General speaking, air battle will destroy enemy’s DCA/OCA capability, destroy enemy coming attack air force, will not let enemy gain air superiority, in war, destroy enemy main forces is final goal, could use OCA or DCA or both, but hard to see “don’t let enemy gain air superiority”

越戰戰史可知,北越空軍以戰機實施防空攔截作戰之次數非常有限,但美軍始終未能獲致北越上空之制空,每次任務遭北越地對空飛彈攻擊之威脅甚鉅,迫使美軍以野鼬機對抗,形成美空中戰機與北越地對空飛彈決戰之局面。
As reviewing Vietnam War, air defense combat sorties were limited by North Vietnam forces. Due to Ground to Air missiles were used by North Vietnam forces, USA forces could not get air superiority fully and forced F-4 combat aircraft against these missiles.

二次大戰不列顛空戰時,英空軍為有效攔截來襲德機,以大批戰機升空,依防空砲兵之配合與其決戰,其先決條件為除自己具備飛機製造能力外,亦可獲致友邦(美方)之援助;故英空軍可選擇英倫上空與德機一次又一次的決戰;其決戰地之選擇主要著眼在於被擊落之飛行員仍然在己方國土,可獲致及時救援,有利於後續作戰。
During WWII in British War British forces assigned many aircrafts as well as air defense artillery force to intercept Germany’s aircraft effectively. British forces are able to produce their own aircrafts and had support from USA so British forces could always against Germans’. They chose decisive point in their homeland due to rescuing their pilots quickly to save them.

是故台澎防衛作戰之空中作戰,我固應力求避免主力遭敵捕殲,且應考量有否可能捕殲敵之主力?若我極力追尋敵之主力以求全殲,俾扭轉戰略態勢,則在空中決戰後,我有無持續戰力可供爾後作戰?若無持續戰力,則面對中共強大之後支力,縱使贏得一次決戰,但亦將失去爾後空中作戰能力,將對爾後作戰極為不利。是故空中作戰應應設法持續空中防攔與有效反制行動之遂行,以使中共無法獲制空優,迫使其爾後之渡海行動不敢冒險進行,從而消彌隨後可能之登陸作戰,進而確保國家安全。
Therefore we must defense our main force attacking by the PRC’s forces as well as consider how destroy the PRC’s main force as possible. Could we continue to fight effectively after we are able to destroy them? If we take advantage at first we would lose next game because we could not keep going against the PRC’s forces by endure support capability.

空戰戰略
Air Combat Strategy

現僅依下列考量因素,略述台澎防衛作戰之空戰戰略構想:
一、國際環境:中共為主權國家,我在國際上僅被聯合國視為地區,而非主權國家。
二、友邦態度:世界各國均力求地區之安定,凡主動挑起爭端者,均將遭國際唾棄;另如台海發生衝突,美、日等國均會以口頭譴責,美國亦可能派遣航母戰鬥群至週邊地區觀察,或以科技支援,然出兵干預則需美人民與國會同意,我應具備無友邦出兵奧援之心理準備。
三、敵情發展:中共一再宣示不放棄以武力解決台灣問題;對中國統一問題亦顯出急迫感;共軍現正積極致力於軍事革命與汰換武器裝備,以具備「打贏高科技戰爭」之條件。
四、威脅認知:中共軍隊軍事化革命完成,各類新武器換裝亦將完成,中共擁有地對地飛彈、衛星監視與通信、核武等軍備,目前我反制能力有限,海峽兩岸在軍備方面之均勢將遭打破,使中共有足夠之能力在台海地區製造一場區域性衝突,我若不速謀預應之道,將無力抗拒此一因不平衡戰力而形成之狀況。
五、科技發展:我國防工業與科技發展僅可部分滿足建軍備戰需求,整體而言,大部分高科技與精密武器裝備尚需依賴外購,亟待建立獨立自主之國防工業。
六、國防預算:整體國防預算佔國民生產毛額比例與世界大部國家相比仍偏低,且因人員維持費用佔國防預算比例偏高,排擠作業維持與軍事投資預算;在有限之國防預算內,應以投資報酬率為主要考量,俾妥善、有效運用有限資源,致力籌建低成本、高效益之國防力量。
七、系統獲得:我補給線甚長,就距離而言,須自歐美地區運抵,就時間而言,
自立研發之武器裝備須耗費極長時間始能獲得。
八、地略環境:台澎防衛作戰就地略形勢而言係屬島嶼型作戰,縱深短淺,西部平原人煙稠密,各主要基地均在敵威脅範圍之內。
九、軍事戰略:應以爭取制空為第一優先,不可將戰火延燒至島內,否則縱使贏得戰爭勝利,亦將相對付出極大成本,極可能限國家於危亡!
十、作戰需求:敵因具有地對地飛彈、核武、衛星監視等高科技武器裝備,對我形成不平衡作戰態勢,故我應於敵威脅企圖甚為明顯時即斷然以積極行動制敵,摧毀敵關鍵性重點,打破此不平衡態勢,轉劣為優。
十一、建軍構想:應以爭取並確保空優為首要,故三軍之建軍不可採平衡發展,應以建立制空戰力為主,並建立足可扭轉敵我優劣態勢之戰力為優先考量,亦即除建立固守戰力外,更應置重點於遠程精準打擊力量-即有效嚇阻力量之建立。
十二、研發測試:對於電子戰等高科技與機密等級極高之武器裝備,應致力於自立研發,以減低外購時所需擔負之風險並可避免受制於人。
十三、後勤支援:未來台澎防衛作戰指揮管制機制仍應朝戰區作戰方向發展,台澎地區為一個作戰區,三軍總部負責提供戰區作戰所需之部隊及後勤支援,惟制空作戰為一聯合作戰行動,為避免各軍種於建立制空作戰兵火力時相互牴觸,應在統一之指導下建立戰力,以有效支援作戰,發揮統合戰力。
十四、啟戰考量:我於聯合國內無一席之地,若猝然對主權國家發起攻擊,於國際舞台上難辭好戰之咎,但面對敵明顯且確定之威脅時,為確保國家安全,就軍事考量,仍應不失戰機,斷然對敵之威脅源實施打擊,以安國全軍。
十五、終戰指導:依據敵不打無把握仗之軍事思想,細思台澎防衛作戰狀況,敵若欲實施登陸作戰,必在其已取得台海制空權後,而我防衛作戰在空優盡失狀況下,是否仍有能力實施反登陸作戰?地、海面部隊在無空優掩護下能否行動自由? 再再值得深思;如何爭取並確保所要空優,打消敵渡海作戰意圖,使敵因無法支應長期作戰之消耗而中止戰爭,此應為我極力爭取之終戰方式!
The factors of Taiwan-Penghu defensive operation are abstracted below:
1) International environment: The UN recognized the PRC is a sovereign state but the ROC is not.
2) Friendly country attitude: If conflict is happened in Taiwan Straits USA and Japan government would denounced it. We are not sure that the USA forces would help us so we should prepare to defense by ourselves.
3) Intelligence development: The PRC’s government always announces that they can not give up using forces to solute “Taiwan issue”. It is urgency to unify China. The PLA played RMA and change weapon equipments a lot that they are ready to win the Hi-Tec War for future.
4) Threat identify: After PLA RMA has done they have ground to ground missiles, spy and communication satellites and nuclear weapons and so on to threaten ROC whose defensive capability would not have enough to counter them. It’s unbalance on both sides.
5) Science and Technology development: Our defense industry development satisfy combat requirement partially. Most of weapon equipments rely on foreign sources so we need to have our own defense industry for future.
6) Defense budgets: Defense budgets of proportion GNP are lower than the other countries’. We need to consider the limited defense budgets to build the low cost and high advantage of defensive capability.
7) System’s requirement: It is long support line for us from Europe and USA. We also need to spend a long time to have weapon’s research.
8) Taiwan environment consideration: It is short line from east to west in Taiwan. There are a lot people live in west where is covered by PLA ’s weapon reach.
9) Military strategy: To get air superiority is first consideration for military strategy.
10) Combat’s requirement: It is unbalance on both sides. We must counter enemy forces aggressively to destroy enemy decisive point to take advantage when enemy forces are ready to attack us obviously.
11) Building forces concept: To command air combat capability is important to build. Except creating resolute defensive capability the BVR precision weapons is also important to have.
12) Research and evaluation: We should research and evaluate our own hi-tec and confidential weapon equipment as electronic warfare to avoid limiting by someone.
13) Logistic support: Taiwan-Penghu region is a combat region. Headquarter of each service is in charge of logistic support to avoid overlap support. These actions are under unifying command to support operation effectively.
14) Trigger of War: It is illegal to attack a serenity country as UN law. If enemy obviously threaten us we would attack them to protect our people security for military consideration.
15) End of war: The end of war is to have air superiority to destroy enemy will cross Taiwan straits to attack us.

由以上分析,得台澎防衛作戰空戰戰略指導如下:
未來台澎防衛作戰共軍渡海之先決條件為獲致台海空優,故我空戰戰略為「不使敵獲致空優」,而造成共軍未能獲致空優之現象,厥為共機來襲時我不斷有防攔機升空攔截,或持續有防空飛彈可以陸制空,或於我所要地區仍有戰管雷達管制我空中戰機,甚至不時還有反制作戰行為出現,造成共軍無法於預想戰場任意行動。共軍若在其預想作戰期程內無法奪取並獲致台海空優,在其後勤支援與整體戰略情勢考量下,極有可能終止其進犯行動,轉取談判!是故在台澎防衛作戰中,空戰戰略應為避免於不利狀況下,或於遭敵逼迫狀況下與敵行空中決戰,應於敵大舉來襲時,以「有所為,有所不為」之作戰指導,針對影響我最鉅或對我威脅最大之目標,集結我所能動用之防空兵(火)力,形成優勢兵力,在戰術上以迅雷不及掩耳之勢,擊滅、摧毀該批來犯之敵,亦即「斷其一指,毋僅傷其十指」;並力求持續發揚我制空作戰戰力,延續制空作戰之遂行,以求戰略持久,進而阻滯其地(海)面部隊進犯行動,俾確保國家安全。在攻勢制空方面,應致力於以火力代替兵力,力求全軍破敵狀況下,迫敵制空戰力遠離我方,以造成敵我概等之戰略態勢!
As we know analysis above the Taiwan-Penghu operation air combat strategy is show up below.
Before PLA cross Taiwan strait attacking ROC on Taiwan air superiority is main influence factor. Our air combat strategy is to deter PLA to get air superiority and deny PLA attacking us. When PLA aircraft fly over Taiwan Strait we should assign aircraft to intercept effectively, use ground to air missiles to threaten them, deploy duty aircrafts in specific area or show them that we have counter air capability to stop them free moving in combat region. If PLA can’t get air superiority and less of logistic support they are probably end of war to negotiate with us. So during Taiwan-Penghu air combat strategy should avoid a bad situation or forcing to decisive fight by PLA. We should have combat guideline which is “something do, something can’t do”. We need to choice a biggest threat and concentrate air defense forces (firepower) to destroy them tactically and quickly. The purpose is to sustain our air combat capability and reach strategy endurance. Defeating PLA land (sea) forces protect our country security. For offensive air combat we should perform firepower instead of forces to deter enemy attacking ROC on Taiwan.

結語
Conclusions


我國長程戰略目標為「生存」和「發展」,遠程目標則希望達到「和平統一」,但兩岸關係在中共始終不放棄「武力犯台」的前提下,國軍現階段必須要作為「維持國家安定和繁榮」的後盾,更須在統一的道路上保有「維持應有的尊嚴」和「既有權益的保障」的力量,然就純粹軍事戰略層面而言,目標則為「有效嚇阻」和「防衛固守」,換言之,亦即「戰略守勢與攻勢作為並列」,以嚇阻敵方不致輕易發動戰爭;當前之台海形勢,係「未戰已戰」,而依我國家戰略而言,實乃「無戰即勝」;在此前提與原則下,空軍的任務不但要以「全軍破敵」,執行「制空作戰」,獲取台澎地區空優,更要達成「嚇阻」之目的,以獲致國家安全。
Finally, “survival and development” are strategy goal. We hope china unifies for future but PRC insist to use forces attacking ROC on Taiwan. So far the military power is back up that we should “maintain nation security and prosperity”, our dignity and ensuring right and interest. The goal of military strategy is “effective deterrence” and “resolute defense” to deter enemy attacking us. Situation is higher potential conflict. Strategy of nation is peaceful so our Air Force should perform air defense combat to get air superiority and maintain nation security.

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